PAGE CONTENTS
Objectives
This activity analyses the applicability of the resilience-by-design (RBD) concept for the design of future satellite communication systems, with the objective of ensuring that future satcom assets and services are developed to be foundationally resilient, offering uninterrupted communication services under the harshest conditions, including loss of more than one-third of space segment assets due to catastrophic events. In this project, two parallel tracks are addressed:
(1) Identification and assessment of current and future threats and risks on next-generation commercial and governmental satcom systems, using an ISO 27005-compliant methodology, with a survey of state-of-the-art mitigation strategies and a resilience quantification framework; (2) Development of a multi-objective optimisation model prototype delivering a formalised framework for full system resilience architecture optimisation, targeting system cost, resilience measure, and overall performance. Moreover, a 10-to-15-year technology development roadmap and a product development plan for the intelligent optimisation tool are also produced.
The target TRL of the activity is 3.
Benefits
The RBD Intelligent Optimisation Tool provides satcom system architects, designers and programme managers with a structured, quantitative framework for evaluating and optimising next generation satcom resilience from the earliest design stages.
Unlike current ad-hoc resilience assessments applied late in the design, the RBD approach embeds resilience as a core parameter from the outset, enabling evidence-based trade-offs between system cost, performance, and resilience under realistic multi-threat scenarios. The activity aims at delivering a dual deliverable track: an RBD Intelligent Optimisation Tool Development Roadmap and a Satcom RBD Technology Roadmap identifying technology gaps over a 10-to-15 year horizon. The methodology grounded in ISO 27005, the Burch resilience formula, and multi-objective optimisation is transferable to future satcom programmes covering both regulated governmental services and commercial markets.
Features
The study delivers four principal components: (1) A comprehensive Threat and Risk Landscape Assessment covering 24 threat categories across seven domains assessed using ISO 27005 and the probability-based Burch resilience formula; (2) A state-of-the-art survey of mitigation strategies with threat-to-countermeasure traceability and a quantification framework; (3) A Resilience-by-Design Optimisation Model Prototype implementing multi-objective optimisation including NSGA-based genetic algorithms and multi-attribute tradespace exploration, with a modular architecture for future extension; (4) A dual-track technology assessment and development plan: a Satcom RBD Technology Roadmap and an RBD Intelligent Optimisation Tool Development Roadmap. All deliverables target TRL 3 and cover multi-orbit, multi-domain architectures.
Challenges
The principal challenge is translating qualitative risk assessments into quantitative Burch resilience probability components, given limited published data for adversarial and kinetic threats to satcom. Multi-objective optimisation across conflicting design KPIs (cost, resilience, availability, throughput) requires careful trade-space formulation. Covering seven threat categories, 24 risk types, and several mitigation strategies for each risk within 12 months demands rigorous scoping. Validating a TRL-3 prototype with limited ground-truth data necessitates structured expert elicitation anchored by published sources. Ensuring interoperability between the risk-mitigation model layer and the optimisation engine while maintaining modularity for future extension is a key architectural challenge.
System Architecture
The study aims to address three representative reference architectures: federated multi-orbit systems (LEO/MEO/GEO integration); modern LEO Satcom mega-constellation and a legacy LEO Satcom architecture for validation purposes. The RBD Intelligent Optimisation Tool is conceived as a modular framework with three layers:
(1) Risk-Mitigation Model Layer parametrised via Burch resilience probability components;
(2) Optimisation Engine applying multi-objective algorithms to navigate the cost-resilience-performance design space;
(3) Tradespace Visualisation and Analysis Module for Pareto frontier analysis and sensitivity assessment. The model prototype constitutes a first functional implementation validated against selected reference architectures.
Plan
The 12-month study runs from Kick-Off in March 2026. Monthly progress reports and bi-monthly progress meetings with ESA will be held throughout the activity.
Current Status
Following the Kick-Off Meeting (19 March 2026), the project is progressing on schedule. In Month 1 (April 2026): the reference architecture review commenced with four/five candidate architecture identified; the threat and risk register is being developed with 24 identified threats and 123 threat-mitigation entries across seven categories; work on the RBD Optimisation Framework survey was initiated; and the first-round expert elicitation survey was prepared. An informal progress meeting with ESA is planned for end of May 2026 ahead of SRR1.
